   |
|
|
Saturday, January 27, 2007
VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday Cheltenham, Saturday, January 27, 2007 4.30pm £25,000 Michael Doocey Memorial Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f GOING: Heavy (Soft in places) for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing 1) 04P-2P DALARAM David Wintle 7-11-12 Warren Marston A useful performer on his day but appears to be on the downgrade. Made an inauspicious start for new connections when tailed off and pulled-up two out in a competitive handicap hurdle at Kempton two weeks ago over half a mile further than this. Ground and current handicap mark against him. Nothing to recommend. BP=66/1 2) F11450 ORPEN WIDE Michael Chapman 5-11-11 David Cullinane (7) He showed smart form against quality opposition in good novice events in the autumn. He has plenty of weight for a novice but his rider's seven pound allowance will help and he has been freshened up with two recent spins on the Flat at Southwell. However, all his best form has been on much better ground than this. BP=33/1 3) -03002 HEATHCOTE Gary Moore 5-11-08 Jamie Moore He was well supported and duly ran a cracker to be second to Papini on heavy ground in the ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle at Ascot earlier this month. The ground will not be a problem but he is not well handicapped, having gone up another 3lb. BP=12/1 4) 5001/1 MAHARBAL Nicky Henderson 7-11-08 Mick Fitzgerald Overcame near two-year absence to score decisively over two miles, five furlongs in a weaker at Kempton on Boxing Day. A 12lb hike in the weights may not be harsh given the manner of that success. The drop in trip and softer ground should not be an issue but this is a much more difficult task. Poor value. BP=5/1 5) 21/32- ASHLEY BROOK Kevin Bishop 9-11-06 Paddy Brennan Top-class two-mile chaser. Last seen when runner-up to Kauto Star in Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in December, 2005. That effort came off a chasing mark of 134 and he runs here off a mark of 126. Handles heavy ground but probably Fitness must be a worry and best watched. Poor value. BP=11/2 6) 0-0001 NIKOLA Nigel Twiston-Davies 6-11-05 Mick Fitzgerald He was runner-up to Straw Bear on British debut last term. Out of sorts in the early part of this season, he bounced back with a victory in a soft ground handicap hurdle at Leicester last time. Could be capable of defying a 9lb pound rise for that success. Cannot be overlooked. BP= 25/1 7) /U00U1 THE KOP END Jonjo O'Neill 9-11-03 Improved for testing conditions when winning a poor two-mile handicap hurdle at Haydock on December 30. Defeated three last time out winners that day but the form is very moderate and absence of Tony McCoy on this JP McManus runner raises questions. One to be wary of. BP= 20/1 8) 341 SPECIAL ENVOY Peter Bowen 5-11-02 Tony McCoy Group Three placed on the Flat in Norway. Put two defeats over hurdles behind him when murdering the opposition in a Fontwell maiden hurdle over nearly three miles earlier this month. His jumping leaves something to be desired but he has improved with each start and the jockey booking is eye-catching. However, a very competitive two-mile handicap hurdle is different proposition. BP=13/2 9) 2-1541 FRENCH SAULAIE Philip Hobbs 6-11-01 Richard Johnson He benefited from a drop in class to score in easy fashion at Huntingdon last time. He may not have beaten much but is a progressive sort whose previous fourth at Ascot is working out form-wise. He enjoys soft conditions and has a definite chance. BP=12/1 10) 343 ALBINUS Andrew Balding 6-10-13 Robert Thornton Has yet to win in three starts over hurdles but this smart Flat performer has shown a fair level of form in good class novice events. Ran third to Air Force One over an extended two and a half miles at Leicester last time. Will be better for this drop in trip but is untested on this ground. Poor value. BP=9/1 11) 1/1-23 MA YAHAB Venetia Williams 6-10-12 Liam Treadwell (3) Lightly-raced who has run well in both starts this season. Third to Papini at Sandown earlier this month and has the beating of the second Heathcote at the weights. He is aprogressive type who has been lightly campaigned so far and his stable is in fabulous form. BP=16/1 12) 4013 POLINAMIX David Pipe 4-10-11 Tom Scudamore The form of his two British starts, including a heavy ground success at Sedgefield, appear to leave him with a bit to find but David Pipe’s horses can never be ignored. BP=20/1 13) 025-01 HEARTHSTEAD DREAM Tony Martin 6-10-11 Timmy Murphy His trainer's Cheltenham runners are always to be feared. Won easily at Fairyhouse on New Year's Day despite being 13lb higher than his previous hurdles win. Progressive and one to be feared but likely to offer little value. BP=3/1 SUMMARY This is a very competitive handicap with several unexposed types and plenty of in-form contenders. This means that there is plenty of good value to be had. MA YAHAB is excellent value each-way.
For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive |
©Racenews |