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Sunday, January 15, 2006
TWO WINNERS FROM TWO SELECTIONS YESTERDAY (SATURDAY) THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN, EVERY SATURDAY EXCLUSIVELY ON WWW.RACENEWSONLINE.CO.UK, PINPOINTED EUROTREK, WHO SCORED AT 6/1.
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
WARWICK, SATURDAY, JANUARY 14, 2006 3pm £75,000 totesport Classic Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 3m 5f for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com BP= the best price at the time of writing GOING: GOOD TO SOFT, SOFT IN PLACES 1) 2F-1 Joaaci Martin Pipe 6-11-12 Timmy Murphy Made light of both an absence and a huge hike in the ratings to land decent handicap at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. Looks a horse with a real future and looks set for another bold show. However, at this price and with this weight he is worth taking on. BP=11/4 2) -PPF Sir Rembrandt Robert Alner 10-11-07 Andrew Thornton Placed in the Gold Cup for the past two season and was in the process of running a good race when falling in the Welsh National last time. Chance at his best, but vulnerable to progressive rivals. BP=12/1 3) 64F1 Double Honour Philip Hobbs 8-11-00b Richard Johnson Slightly quirky but very consistent sort who defeated Arctic Jack at Haydock last time. Sure to stay this trip and should be thereabouts once again, although his overall win record is a cause for concern. BP=11/1 4) -434 Crystal D'Ainay Alan King 7-11-00v Robert Thornton High-class staying hurdler at best but has not yet looked quite so good over fences. Looked as if extreme distances may stretch his stamina last time out in the Welsh National. Others preferred. BP=9/1 5) P-41 Eurotrek Paul Nicholls 10-10-09 Ruby Walsh Lightly-raced sort who put up a very smooth effort when winning at Newbury last time. Needs to improve again but could well be the one. BP= 11/2 6) U0/P Shardam Nigel Twiston-Davies 9-10-07 Carl Llewellyn Last win over two years ago and little in the way of encouragement on his reappearance in the Welsh National last time. BP=28/1 7) -30U Control Man Martin Pipe 8-10-07v Andrew Glassonbury (7) Each-way chance if reproducing his effort at Cheltenham in November. Bit disappointing subsequently over hurdles at Cheltenham and stumbled shortly after the start in Welsh National. Claiming rider is very able. BP=11/1 8) 1411 Dead-Eyed Dick Nick Williams 10-10-00 Paddy Brennan Progressive sort round the West Country tracks and will certainly stay, having won over four miles last time. Looks a bit vulnerable in this better class but cannot be dismissed. BP=7/1 9) 13-F Glen Warrior Julian Smith 10-10-00 Paul Moloney Won novices' handicap at Uttoxeter last season but looks as if he will struggle on overall form. BP= 33/1 10) P-42 Artic Jack Sue Smith 10-10-00 David Elsworth Very useful a couple of seasons ago and showed a clear return to form when second to Double Honour last time. On as favourable a handicap as he has been in a long time and is definitely in there with a chance. BP=9/1 11) 3516 Victory Gunner Craig Roberts 8-10-00 Lee Stephens (5) Well beaten in novice company last weekend and hard to fancy. BP=33/1 12) 3-P6 Granit D'Estruval Ferdy Murphy 12-10-00 Brian Harding Useful in his prime (Irish Grand National winner) but looks as if age has caught up with him and is out of the handicap. BP=18/1 13) -P45 Kittenkat Richard Mitchell 12-10-00 Tom Scudamore Capable plodder in his own company but impossible to fancy from almost 2st out of the handicap. BP=150/1 SUMMARY: EUROTREK looks a most progressive performer and is still on a handy mark.
CODEBREAKER - posted Friday, January 13, 2006 CODEBREAKER EVERY FRIDAY FOR SATURDAY formerly in the Racing Post Weekender ££35,000 TOTESPORT LANZAROTE HANDICAP HURDLE, 2M 1F 2.45pm CARLISLE, SATURDAY, JANUARY 14, 2006 Main Trends Look for horses aged between five and seven - no other age group has won since 1989. Horses carrying more than 11st 5lb are not favoured 17 of the last 18 winners finished in the first three on their last completed start Horses making their seasonal debut are to be avoided 12 of the last 18 winners had no more than three previous outings during the season. The winner should have won earlier in the campaign, as had 12 of the 18 previous victors. The totesport Lanzarote Hurdle has a slightly different look this year. The Kempton Park redevelopment means that the competitive and valuable handicap hurdle will be run at Carlisle over a furlong further than the usual two-mile distance. Codebreaker will examine the trends for this handicap and attempt to pinpoint the likely winner from among the 12 candidates who face the starter. Looking at age, 16 of the past 18 renewals, and all of the last 15 runnings, have fallen to five, six or seven-year-olds. This year, only the nine-year-old front-runner Benbyas falls outside that category, and he can be immediately discarded from calculations. Akilak, third in last season’s JCB Triumph Hurdle, shoulders top-weight of 11st 12lb. Only two horses, Limerick Boy in 2004 and Trying Again nine years earlier, have carried over 11st 5lb to victory, so Howard Johnson’’s five-year-old is duly eliminated from calculations. During the past 18 renewals of the Lanzarote, 17 winning horses finished in the first three on their last run prior to the race, ignoring non-completed outings. The one exception to the rule was Tomahawk in 1993. Therefore, Rayshan, Kentucky Blue and Overstrand are dismissed as they were out of the first three last time. Of the last 18 winners, only Warm Spell in 1996 won the race on his seasonal debut. Mr President, tenth in this race last season is having his first start for 330 days, so the stats are against him. This still leaves half of the field still in contention. Returning to weight carried, 12 of the past 18 victors carried less than 11st, so the former French-trained Amour Multiple, set to carry 11st 3lb, is knocked out of the equation. Of those winners who had run that season prior to landing the totesport Lanzarote Hurdle, 12 of the 17 had raced three times or less. This means that Texas Holdem and Thoutmosis are overlooked as they have been to post four times each since the current season began. 12 of the past 18 winners had won earlier in the campaign. Of the three remaining, the potentially well-treated Andre Chenier has yet to win in three starts this term and is overlooked. With two runners remaining, getting the field down to a single horse is problematic, so we shall take another look at age. Since 1989, six-year-olds have won eight renewals, while five-year-olds have won on four occasions, as have seven-year-olds. Soft ground specialist Torkinking won easily off top-weight in lesser grade at Sedgefield last time but is a seven-year-old. As the only six-year-old remaining, BUCK WHALEY gets the nod as this week’s selection. Jonjo O’Neill’s gelding routed a big field in a two and a quarter mile handicap hurdle on yielding ground at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival on his last outing, and could have plenty of improvement left in the locker for this, his fifth career hurdles start.
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