Saturday, January 29, 2005
THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY
CHELTENHAM, SATURDAY, JANUARY 29, 2005
GOING: GOOD TO SOFT
2.05pm £110,000 Victor Chandler Chase 2 miles 110 yards
For the latest best odds, go to www.britodds.com
BP= best price at the time of writing
1) -23F Well Chief Martin Pipe 6-11-10 Timmy Murphy
Sets the standard, having won the Arkle Chase last season and also running very well behind Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop on his penultimate appearance. However, he will need to be very good to give this amount of weight away and he needs to get his confidence back after his Wetherby fall. Look elsewhere for better value but remember that Well Chief likes Cheltenham. BP= 5/2
2) 1U46 Cenkos Paul Nicholls 11-10-09 Barry Geraghty
Getting on in years now and hasn’t really looked at his best so far this season. Would prefer faster ground too although he does have a good record at Cheltenham. BP= 22/1
3) 1143 Armaturk Paul Nicholls 8-10-06t Christian Williams
Beat Well Chief by a head here earlier in the season and now meets that rival on 19lb better terms. Not disgraced on last two efforts, will act on the ground and has a chance.
BP= 7/1
4) P-55 Flagship Uberalles Philip Hobbs 11-10-05 Richard Johnson
Winner of the Arkle in 1999 and the Queen Mother Champion Chase in 2002. Doesn’t look to be the force of old although he is on a very attractive weight in this his first handicap for a long time. Ground no problem. BP= 22/1
5) -226 Seebald Martin Pipe 10-10-04 Tony McCoy
Grand servant over the years and ran well on his first two outings this season, second over three miles on the second one before failing to cope with the fast pace in the King George over the same trip last time. The ground no problem and he looks reasonably treated but will he have the necessary speed back over two miles. BP= 12/1
6) -232 Kadarann Paul Nicholls 8-10-04 Paddy Brennan
A bit short of top class, but he is very useful nonetheless and he is well treated even from 2lb out of the handicap on his latest run in a Wetherby conditions chase. 6lb better off with stable companion Armaturk and beat him two lengths last time out at Wetherby. But on his previous third, Kadarann is held by Seebald. BP= 9/1
7) 2F94 Turgeonev Tim Easterby 10-10-04 David O’Meara
Won this race when it was run at Ascot in 2002. Nothing in his recent form to suggest he can win it for a second time and seems well held on his last run. BP= 33/1
8) 2-22 Thisthatandtother Paul Nicholls 9-10-04 Ruby Walsh
Two good efforts this season when runner-up in both the Paddy Power and bonusprint.com Gold Cups over around two miles and five furlongs. Steps down to two miles but he is not sure to suit as he has looked a bit one-paced in the past, is 5lb out of the handicap and others offer better value. BP= 11/4
9) 73-3 Golden Alpha Martin Pipe 11-10-04 Rodi Greene
A decent handicapper on his day but there is nothing in recent form to suggest that this race is within his grasp from 12lb out of the handicap. BP= 40/1
10) 2-FF Non So Nicky Henderson 7-10-04 Mick Fitzgerald
Had some decent novice form last season and in the process of running a good race when falling on both starts this year. However, his stable is still a bit in the doldrums and a race like this will put a lot of pressure on his jumping, plus being well out of the handicap. Terrible value. BP= 6/1
SUMMARY
A fasicinating race with one horse giving a lot of weight away and yet two of the other short-priced horses are out of the handicap. Avoid them all and go for Flagship Uberalles who is a fabulous price at 22/1 and 20/1 with Philip Hobbs and Richard Johnson in fine form. Have small bit each-way and sit back and watch should be a tremendous race.
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