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Saturday, January 22, 2005


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY




WINCANTON, SATURDAY, JANUARY 22, 2005



GOING:Good to soft, soft in places

3.35pm £15,000-added connaught.plc.uk Handicap Hurdle (0-125) 2m

For the latest best odds, go to www.britodds.com
BP= best odds at the time of writing

1) 2-35 Island Sound 55 David Elsworth 8-11-12 R Stephens(5) 126
Useful performer at best though he does not win that often. Has run twice at Newbury this season but best when making the running on ground that is not too soft. Claimer takes some weight off and not without a chance here. BP= 10/1

2) 31P/ Lord Joshua 1045 Nicky Henderson 7-11-9 Marcus Foley -
Has not run for nearly two and a half years when a novice hurdler. Inexperienced. BP= 15/2

3) F2F8 Forever Dream 7 Philip Hobbs 7-11-9 Richard Johnson 124
Ran better than finishing position suggests in the totesport Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last Saturday. Not particularly well handicapped but is reunited with Richard Johnson who knows him well and the combination has won over course and distance. Said to like top of the ground so conditions may not at their best but hopefully it will not be too soft and Forever Dream will appreciate the strong pace. BP= 7/1

4) -F20 Emanic 14 Paul Nicholls 5-11-7b1 Joe Tizzard 120
Switched back from chasing but made little in impression in The Ladbroke Hurdle, a much better race than this. May need to come down the handicap more -blinkered for the first time. BP= 8/1

5) 3130 Avitta 24 Venetia Williams 6-11-7 Sam Thomas 125
In good form earlier in the season but disappointed last time when sent up to Scotland. Not out of it but not as appealing as some others. BP= 8/1

6) 2333 Odagh Odyssey 12 Emma Lavelle 11-11-3 Barry Fenton 128
Chaser who has been running consistently in novice hurdles but this looks a tougher contest. Front runner. BP= 5/1

7) 0-47 Turbo 44 Jonathan Geake 6-10-13tv Chocolate Thornton 127
Fair performer on the Flat but has yet to win over jumps -enough said. BP= 13/2

8) FU95 Robyn Alexander 16 Paul Nicholls 7-10-8 Christian Williams 124
Owned by a Wincanton club and his recent form has not been good enough. BP= 12/1

9) -414 Kildee Lass 23 Jimmy Frost 6-10-4 C Honour(5) 125
Consistent enough but went up a lot for a modest win and her form does not look good enough. BP= 7/1

10) 3448 The Gene Genie 37 Ron Hodges 10-10-0 Jamie Moore 128
Coming back to two miles from running over longer trips but nothing much to recommend him on. BP= 10/1

SUMMARY
An interesting contest which should favour those at the top of the weights. FOREVER DREAM looks tremendous value, from a stable in form with a top jockey on board - back him each-way - with the only doubt being the ground.




CODEBREAKER EVERY FRIDAY

formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

£75,000 PETER MARSH CHASE 3m
2.10pm HAYDOCK PARK, SATURDAY, JANUARY 22, 2005



Main Trends
Only three horses older than 10 have triumphed since 1989

Look for horses that were in the first three last time out

No more than four previous outings in the season

Concentrate on horse with 11st or less but only one winner came form outside of the handicap in the last 14 renewals

A good race for better-fancied horses - no winner returned at over 7/1, although only four favourites since 1989 and none since 1996


Haydock Park’s Peter Marsh Chase regularly attracts an outstanding field with Cheltenham Gold Cup winners such as Jodami, The Thinker, Bregawn and Little Owl on its roll of honour as well as the 1998 Grand National hero Earth Summit and a whole host of other big names such as Combs Ditch, Twin Oaks, Zeta’s Lad, Nick The Brief, General Wolfe, The Last Fling, Red Striker and Truckers Tavern.


Codebreaker will examine the trends in the Peter Marsh Chase since 1989 to pinpoint the likely winner from the seven declarations.


Young horses have been the dominant force in the last 14 runnings, with only three horses older than 10 prevailing. Following that trend, the first horses to be eliminated are the 12-year-old First Gold and the 11-year-old Bindaree.


Generally, horses with a lower weight are to be favoured, with nine of the last 14 winners carrying 11st or less to victory. Hand Inn Hand (11st 10lb) is therefore passed over.


On the other hand, only Earth Summit in 1995 won from out of the handicap, so Lord Transcend, who is 3lb “wrong” in this limited handicap, is another to be discounted.


Good recent form is important, with only four horses since 1989 not having been placed in their final outing prior to Haydock. Take The Stand did not achieve this feat and joins the list of eliminated horses.


We are now left with two possible winners - Truckers Tavern and Chives. Both horses fill the other main trend of not having raced more than four times and both are likely to trade at less than 7/1, like all of the last 14 winners.

Preference is just given to TRUCKERS TAVERN, winner of this race in 2003, who is taken to join General Wolfe and Jodami who both won this contest twice.

For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive

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