Saturday, January 15, 2005

THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

WARWICK, SATURDAY, JANUARY 15, 2005

1) P5/8 Shotgun Willy Paul Nicholls 11-11-12 Joe Tizzard
Very useful staying chaser a couple of seasons ago but no great encouragement on his return to action in the Welsh National and will need to do better which I expect hecan but topweight in this testing ground is asking a lot. BP= 33/1

2)U-14 Stormez Martin Pipe 8-11-08t Timmy Murphy
Ultra-tough performer who can never be discounted in these sort of races. Should run his usual game race, although he is better on faster ground and his jumping has never been that good. BP= 20/1

3) 3544 Double Honour Philip Hobbs 7-10-12b1 Paddy Brennan
Has not always looked the most straightforward of performers, although he is generally pretty consistent. Could be an interesting contender depending on how he responds to first-time blinkers but he still has his fair share of weight. BP= 14/1

4) 1-11 Grattan Lodge Howard Johnson 8-10-10 Graham Lee
Keeps on improving and has won 10 of his 12 races since November, 2002. Loves soft ground and stays all day. This is his toughest task to date but there could well be more to come and he is much respected. BP= 5/1

5) 1024 L'Aventure Paul Nicholls 6-10-09tb Ruby Walsh
Thoroughly genuine mare who is a very thorough stayer. Got going all too late in the Welsh National when she finished very strongly. Should be thereabouts once again and the ground will suit her. BP= 8/1

6) -3P1 Merchants Friend Charlie Mann 10-10-09p Noel Fehily
Good performer on soft ground at his best, as he showed when winning at Haydock last time. Respected, although he is not always the most consistent sort and has a tougher task here. BP= 9/1

7) -F85 D'Argent Alan King 8-10-08 Robert Thornton
Progressive novice in the first half of last season but has not really shown enough on his outings since and has yet to do much this season. BP= 10/1

8) PF-7 Akarus Martin Pipe 10-10-07v1 Rodi Greene
Has yet to win from seven starts in Britain in over two years, although he has run some fair races in defeat. Ran well on his reappearance in the Welsh National when seventh. Lightly raced and was 5/2 favourite for this race last year when pulled up off a 2lb higher mark. Has a visor for the first time and could be the surprise package. BP= 14/1

9) P-22 Wain Mountain Jim Old 9-10-06 Wayne Hutchinson
Loves soft ground and two solid efforts this season, both at Chepstow, but overmuch shorter distances. Has not yet proved that he stays this far and is best watched in this much tougher race. BP= 9/1

10) 1-81 Historic Tom George 9-10-06 Jason Maguire
Formerly a very good staying hurdler who seems to have taken well to fences and showed his stamina with victory of the extended 3m 5f at Sandown last time. This is a much more competitive race and he has more to do off a 6lb higher mark than last time. BP= 8/1

11) 7731 Maximize Martin Pipe 11-10-05 Tom Malone (5)
Very quirky performer but has plenty of ability when in the mood, as when coming from a mile back to defy Merchants Friend in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham and when winning at Exeter last time. Hard to predict and would prefer faster ground, also 8lb better off with Historic, including rider’s claim, for a 6 length defeat at Sandown. BP= 28/1

12) 803F Kelami Francois Doumen FR 7-10-05 Mick Fitzgerald
French performer who has shown useful form when on song and was in the process of running a good race when falling behind Therealbandit at Cheltenham last time. Quirky performer who may be suited to the conditions and could stay well. BP= 10/1

13) U162 Baron Windrush Nigel Twiston-Davies 7-10-03 Carl Llewellyn
Seems to have sorted his jumping problems out, but does not seem up to winning this even on his best form as he lacks experience. BP= 11/1

14) 651P Cowboyboots Lawrence Wells 7-10-00 Mr J Morgan (7)
Some fair bits of form at his best, but looks likely to struggle in this grade on all known evidence. BP= 40/1

15) 1111 Fashions Monty Ferdy Murphy 9-10-00t Neil Mulholland (3)
Mare who has shown a great deal of improvement this year, although she was a fortunate winner at Wetherby last time. She should certainly stay and cannot be dismissed. BP= 33/1

16) 3438 Historg Ferdy Murphy 10-10-00 Keith Mercer (3)
Stays well, but likely to struggle in this grade even on his best form. BP= 25/1

SUMMARY
AKARUS is a proven soft-ground performer and offers excellent each-way value

CODEBREAKER EVERY FRIDAY FOR SATURDAY

formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

£50,000 TOTESPORT LANZAROTE HANDICAP HURDLE, 2M

3.25pm KEMPTON PARK, SATURDAY, JANUARY 15, 2005

The totesport Lanzarote Hurdle is a competitive and valuable handicap hurdle which heads Saturday’s interesting programme.

Codebreaker will examine the trends for this two-mile handicap and attempt to pinpoint the likely winner of the 21 starters at Kempton Park.

Looking at age, all of the last 15 runnings have fallen to five, six or seven-year-olds.

This means Castleshane (8), Torrid Kentavr (8), Nathos (8), Brooklyn's Gold (11) and Haditovski (9) can be immediately discarded from calculations.

During the past 17 renewals of the Lanzarote, 16 winning horses finished in the first three on their last run prior to Kempton, ignoring non completed outings. The one exception to the rule was Tomahawk in 1993.

Therefore, Green Tango, Dad's Elect, Constantine, Sir Laughalot and Ela Re get the chop as they were out of the first three last time and got round.

Only two horses, Limerick Boy last year and Trying Again nine years earlier, have carried over 11st 5lb to victory so the two remaining horses at the top of the handicap - Royal Hector and Sharp Rigging - are dismissed.

Only Stray Shot in 1987 raced more than five times that season prior to their success which means that Forever Dream looks over-raced to prevail here.

Returning to age since 1989, six-year-olds have been twice as successful as any other age group. Horses aged six have won eight renewals during this time, five-year-olds have won on four occasions, while seven-year-olds have prevailed three times.

This rules out five-year-olds Chockdee and Say What You See and seven-year-olds One Cornetto and Crossbow Creek.

With four runners left, getting the field down to a single horse is problematic but this week's selection is MR PRESIDENT.

Without A Doubt, trained by Mark Pitman, the Paul Nicholls-trained Goblet Of Fire and McBain, trained by Philip Hobbs, are all looked after by handlers who have yet to have the honour of winning a totesport Lanzarote Hurdle.

In contrast the selection is cared for by Venetia Williams, who saddled last year's hero Limerick Boy.

End

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