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Saturday, October 7, 2006


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN EVERY SATURDAY

ASCOT, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2006




for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

Going - Good

2.10pm - THE £75,000 LADBROKES.COM HERITAGE HANDICAP, 1m 4f


1) 291- COME ON JONNY Ralph Beckett 4-9-10 Seb Sanders
Has not seen a racecourse since scoring over this trip on heavy ground in November. Tough task on return under top weight and likely to need this. Ground is also not soft enough. BP= 25/1

2) 0132 GROUP CAPTAIN Roger Charlton 4-9-06 DOUBTFUL
Doubtful runner.

3) 3700 HEARTHSTEAD WINGS Mark Johnston 4-9-04v Joe Fanning
Ran better than form figure suggests last time out over course and distance after no show in previous two starts, having run well before that when third in Group Three Sagaro Stakes over two miles at Lingfield in May. BP= 50/1

4) 3048 BRAVO MAESTRO Nick Littmoden 5-9-01b Chris Catlin
All five wins have come on the Polytrack though he has run well on turf this season, latest when close eighth, finishing well, to Pinpoint in valuable 10-furlong handicap at Newbury last month. Capable of bold show if getting a clear run. BP= 33/1

5) 1311 STOTSFOLD Walter Swinburn 3-9-00 Adam Kirby
Did not see the track until May but has rapidly made up into a smart performer, landing four handicaps over 10 furlongs. He should handle step up in trip and there could be more improvement to come though this is his hardest task by far after big jump in the ratings. BP= 7/1

6) 7400 TIGER TIGER Jamie Poulton 5-9-00 John Egan
He is not certain to appreciate this trip and recent level of form suggests he will struggle here. BP= 50/1

7) 9113 PEPPERTREE LANE Mark Johnston 3-8-13 Kevin Darley
In fine fettle of late, scoring twice on very testing ground, including over this trip at Ripon, and good third last time over course and distance behind Pevensey last month. This good ground looks likely to be against him and he is worth opposing at these odds. BP= 4/1

8) 4441 PEVENSEY Mark Buckley 4-8-11 Martin Dwyer
Excellent effort last time to score here over this trip on September 24, with Peppertree Lane close-up in third. He has yet to record back-to-back wins and will find this a tougher task. BP= 14/1

9) 2003 PURPLE MOON Sir Michael Stoute 3-8-11 Ryan Moore
Looked good on debut when scoring over a mile at Newbury and confirmed that impression when second next time behind a subsequent Group Three winner, but not so good since. He is 12lb better of with Stotsfold for a three-length beating last time out. BP= 12/1

10) 9056 RED LANCER Richard Fahey 5-8-09 Eddie Ahern
Landed Group Three Chester Vase in May, 2004 as a there-year-old but has not won since. Still capable on his day but winless streak a worry in race as competitive as this and passed over. BP= 28/1

11) /111 CORRAN ARD Evan Williams 5-8-06 NON RUNNER

12) 3128 ST SAVARIN Richard Fahey 5-8-08 Paul Hanagan
Has acquitted himself well this season, taking heavy ground handicap over this trip at Haydock last month and running well in defeat last time over an extra two furlongs. Ther ground though will be against him today. BP= 28/1

13) 4111 MACORVILLE George Moore 3-8-07 Jamie Spencer
Progressive handicapper on testing ground over middle distances, landing the hat-trick with a battling display at Hamilton in September. Career-best needed here but he is capable of a big run, thogh softer ground would suit. BP= 9/1

14) 1114 ALESSANO Gary Moore 4-8-07b Jim Crowley
Winning sequence brought to an end at Ayr last time when only fourth of seven behind the useful Lets Roll. Trip and ground no problem but vulnerable to something better handicapped. BP= 33/1

15) P-65 DIEGO CAO Dina Smith 5-8-01 James Doyle (3)
Dual-purpose performer who was last seen disappointing over this trip at Goodwood in May. However, his trainer is back in form and he is fairly treated on his best form with a smart apprentice up. Good value longshot. BP= 50/1

16) 1652 ZAIF David Elsworth 3-8-00 Marc Halford (3)
Lightly-raced colt who produced a good effort to chase home Cambridgeshire second Blue Bajan on his latest start over 10 furlongs. First try at this trip though. BP= 16/1

17) 0032 BEAU NASH Peter Chapple-Hyam 3-8-01 Adrian McCarthy
Scored over seven furlongs as a juvenile and back to form on his last two outings, latest when second to easy winner Bauer over a furlong shorter. However, this is a tougher task.

BP= 7/1

18) 1111 RATIONALE Stuart Williams 3-7-13 Jamie Mackay
Improving young stayer who captured his fourth race on the spin with a narrow victory at Yarmouth in September over an extra two furlongs. He is still on the upgrade but gfacestr his toughest task off his highest ever rating. BP= 11/2

SUMMARY
DIEGO CAO and BRAVO MAESTRO are too excellently priced longshots in what looks to be a very open race on ground that is likely to be faster than expected at the new Ascot. The VBC normally only recommends one horse but the odds here are long enough to back two, especially on betting exchanges.




CODEBREAKER

formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

ASCOT, UK, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2006

3.55pm - £20,000 Mitsubishi Electric Handicap, 5f (Class 2)



Main trends:

no winner since 1989 has been returned at odds of greater than 25/1

11 of the last 14 winners ran at least six times earlier in the campaign

11 of the last 14 winners carried between 8st 7lb and 9st 10lb to success

10 of the last 14 winners had won previously that season

11 of the last 14 winners were aged between three and five


This Saturday’s Mitsubishi Electric Handicap sees some fast sprinters scorch up Ascot’s five-furlong course in their bid to capture an end-of-season prize.


11 of the last 14 winners ran at least six times earlier in the campaign - the three exceptions were Speed Cop, who dead-heated for trainer Andrew Balding in a thrilling renewal in 2003, the David Chappell-trained Cape Merino in 1994 and Lugana Beach, trained by David Elsworth, in 1989.


All of this year’s 12 contestants have run at least six times this season so Codebreaker must look elsewhere to narrow down the field.


Since 1989 only three winners have not carried between 8st 7lb and 9st 10lb to success. Olivia Grace was on a mark of 9st 11lb when victorious in 2002, while Ashtina (1992) and Sloe Berry (1990) carried 7st 8lb and 7st 1lb respectively.


Both Green Park and Godfrey Street are set to carry 8st 6lb this year and are therefore discarded.

A win earlier in the campaign seems a good indicator to a horse’s chance here. Speed Cop, Olivia Grace, Dancing Mystery in 2001 and Cape Merino were the only four scorers in the last 13 runnings not to have graced the winner’s enclosure with their presence previously that season.


Lafi, Woodcote and Connect have yet to gain that elusive first success this term, and this trio are eliminated.


Halmahera, eight when sharing the spoils three years ago, and seven-year-olds Ashtina and Dancing Mystery, are the only successful horses in the last 13 runnings not to have been aged between three and five.


Corridor Creeper, Cape Royal, Idle Power and Golden Dixie can all be discounted as they are considered too old to win here.


Eight of the last 14 winners has been placed in the first four on their previous run. As Green Manalishi and Prince Namid did not achieve a top four finish last time out, they are dismissed.


This leaves the Michael Blanshard-trained CHARLES DARWIN as this week’s Codebreaker selection.

Being a three-year-old, he fits the age criteria for the race and he finished a good third at Ascot on his latest start.

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