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Saturday, October 28, 2006



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday
NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2006

2:05pm - The £23,500 bet365 Zetland Stakes (Listed) 10f




for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

Going - Good to soft, soft in places.


1) 2122 AAIM TO PROSPER Mick Channon 2-9-02 Tony Culhane
He has steadily improved following a debut fourth on the July Course at Headquarters back in August, getting off the mark on the Polytrack at Wolverhampton over an extended mile last month. He has since finished second twice over a mile - the latest in a nursery on the Polytrack at Lingfield - and races as though he will be suited by this longer trip. But he needs to improve further and handle this ground. BP= 14/1

2) 4811 BED FELLOW Alan Jarvis 2-9-02 Seb Sanders
There was nothing to shout about on his first four outings but Bed Fellow has really got his act together lately, scoring over a mile on testing ground at Windsor and Newbury earlier this month, getting up by a neck on both occasions. He will relish any further rain and should stay the trip, but has more to prove at this level and is taking on much classier types. BP= 28/1

3) 71 CLARRICIEN Eoghan OìNeill 2-9-02 Ryan Moore
He left his debut running behind when the comfortable winner over an extended mile at Hamilton on September 17, defeating Ashn Thunder by three lengths, despite losing ground at the start. The second and third have been beaten since. This is much tougher but he is going the right way and, with step up in distance and softening ground likely to suit, could improve. BP= 10/1

4) 02 CORDWAIN John Gosden 2-9-02b Frankie Dettori
He was well behind Empire Day on his first start but did a lot better next time when second to Shimoni over this trip at Yarmouth earlier this month. This is a far sterner test however and he needs to have improved significantly. BP= 20/1

5) 13 EMPIRE DAY Mark Johnston 2-9-02 Kevin Darley
He looked an exciting prospect when beating 15 opponents over a mile here last month and was slightly disappointing when only third at Pontefract in Listed event over the same trip next time, albeit behind a pair who had run well previously at Group Two level. There should be more to come at this distance and he looks the stable first-string but does not represent value. BP= 2/1

6) 1 ONE TO FOLLOW Clive Cox 2-9-02 Philip Robinson
The narrow winner of his only start, beating the useful Big Robert over seven furlongs at Ascot in July. His pedigree suggests 10 furlongs will be within his compass, but he has been off the track for three months and any fitness flaws will be exposed on this softer ground while the form has proved just ordinary. BP= 4/1

7) 011 PHILANTHROPY Mark Johnston 2-9-02 Joe Fanning
He has really benefited from going up in trip having been beaten a long way on his debut over seven furlongs, winning at Goodwood and Leicester over nine and 10 furlongs respectively, showing good battling qualities last time. The second has run well in a French Group Three since. He is just the type for this race and is far better value than his stable companion. BP= 13/2

8) 941 FASHION STATEMENT Michael Jarvis 2-8-11 Robert Winston
She is an improving filly who showed her liking for testing ground when hammering Peintre’s Wonder by eight lengths at Ayr over a mile on October 9. She is capable of getting in the shake-up but has a tough task taking on the colts. BP=10/1

9) 4124 GUACAMOLE Barry Hills 2-8-11 Michael Hills
A consistent filly who scored on the Polytrack at Lingfield over seven furlongs in July, and has since run well on heavy and quick ground. She should run her race but the level of her nursery fourth over a mile here last month suggests she has something to find but not too much as one line of form puts her two and a half lengths behind Empire Day. She should be suited by the trip too. BP= 11/2

10) 81 SHIMONI William Knight 2-8-11 NON-RUNNER

SUMMARY
An intriguing two-year-old contest where proven stamina should be noted and this makes PHILANTHROPY tremendous each-way value.



CODEBREAKER

NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2006

3:45pm - £30,000 bet365 Handicap, Rowley Mile



Main Trends:

14 of the 15 winners of this contest were drawn in stall five or higher

12 of the 15 winners carried between 7st 13lb and 9st 4lb to victory

12 of the 15 winners were aged between three and five

14 of the 15 winners raced between three and 12 times earlier in the campaign

10 of the 15 winners were placed on their previous start


There have been 15 renewals of this prestigious handicap, run over a mile on the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket and, to date, the only winner emerging from stalls one to four has been the 2003 hero Thihn.


Of this year's 15 runners, this trend immediately rules out Indian Steppes, Sailor King, Gramm and Blue Spinnaker.


12 of the 15 winners shouldered between 7st 13lb and 9st 4lb to victory - the three exceptions being Greenaway Bay, who carried only 7st 6lb when scoring in 2000, and Zero Tolerance, who has landed the contest for the last two years under 9st 7lb.


However, with all the remaining runners carrying between 8st and 9st 4lb, Codebreaker must look elsewhere in order to narrow down this year’s field.


When Thihn was victorious at the age of eight, he became only the third winner of this event not to be aged between three and five. The other exceptions were seven-year-old Saifan, successful in 1996, and Greenaway Bay, who was six..


Seven-year-old Unshakable and six-year-olds St Petersburg and Audience are up against it here and disappear from the reckoning.


Since 1991 Master Beveled, victorious in 1994, was the only winner not to have raced between three and 12 times earlier in the campaign - he had enjoyed a whopping18 previous outings.


Rain Stops Play has already had 13 races this term and is therefore ruled out of consideration.


12 of the previous 15 winners of this competitive handicap had got their heads in front at least once earlier in the campaign - the three anomalies were Soller Bay in 2001, Raheen three years earlier and Consort in 1997.


Of those remaining, Arm Candy has not been good enough to enter the winner's enclosure this season, and she is discounted.


10 of the 15 successful horses since 1991 were placed on their latest start before running at Headquarters. None of Plum Pudding, Gentleman’s Deal, Supaseus and Harvest Queen achieved a top three finish last time, and this quartet are ruled out.


Codebreaker now has a straight choice between Rio Riva and Salinja. Both are four-year-olds who have won this term and finished placed last time out. Additionally, they have had only six and seven outings respectively this season and are weighted within 2lb of each other.


SALINJA ran well over this course and distance when second in a big field earlier this month, and with trainer Amanda Perrett having landed this prize in 1997 with Consort, he is this week’s Codebreaker selection.


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