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Saturday, October 21, 2006



THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday

LINGFIELD, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 21, 2006

3.30pm - The £18,000 Deal Or No Deal Now At Ladbrokes.com Handicap 1m 4f Polytrack




for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

Going - Standard


1) 1/1 DESCARTES Saeed Bin Suroor 4-9-09 Ted Durcan
Easy winner of his only start at two and made light of a near two-year absence to score readily by a length on his return in a handicap over this course and distance earlier this month, looking a decent prospect. Completely unexposed and could be far better than a handicapper - he has gone up by 9lb for his win - but his price will reflect that and worth opposing here under joint top-weight. BP = 15/8

2) 1305 MILLVILLE Michael Jarvis 6-9-09 Ian Mongan
Useful middle-distance performer who has good form on the Polytrack. Has run with credit this year, winning at York in May and finishing a good fifth last time behind Pevensey at Ascot last time out but has plenty of weight though trainer is in great form. BP = 14/1

3) 7223 ROYAL JET Mick Channon 4-9-04 Tadgh OìShea
Comes into this contest in good form, having been placed on his last three starts, the latest over course and distance behind Descartes. He is 9lb better of with the winner for three lengths, but does not have the potential of that rival. BP = 11/1

4) 0000 GIG HARBOR Emma Lavelle 7-9-04 George Baker
Good record on this surface in the past, with five course and distance victories to his name, but badly out of form this term, having beaten only one rival home in four outings. Impossible to fancy in this company. BP = 66/1

5) 3700 DAY TO REMEMBER Ed Vaughan 5-9-04tv Pat Dobbs
Scored over 10 furlongs at Newbury back in May and was a good third in a valuable handicap at the Curragh over an extra two furlongs next time, but very disappointing last three starts. Last of 10 at Ascot latest needs improving upon and unlikely to be troubling the judge in a race of this nature. First time on Polytrack. BP = 50/1

6) 4416 PEVENSEY Mark Buckley 4-9-01 David Allan
Been very consistent this year, running well the last twice at Ascot over this trip, including when beating Group Captain by a neck in September. Ran below par only try on the Polytrack at Kempton in April and more to prove than others on this surface. BP = 12/1

7) -213 COUNTRY PURSUIT Clive Brittain 4-9-00 Brett Doyle
Excellent Polytrack record here, winning twice and finishing a short-head second from three starts, taking the scalp of Young Mick back in April over this trip. Ran respectably on turf when third to Tartouche in May, but has not been seen since, and seems to have plenty on his plate coming back after a break. BP = 14/1

8) 1-03 SACRANUN Luca Cumani 4-9-00v Nicky Mackay
Lightly-raced four-year-old who improved on his unplaced comeback effort when a close third at Haydock over an extended 10 furlongs a month ago. However, he has yet to run on this surface and stamina not proven either so looks opposable. BP = 14/1

9) 2532 TRANSVESTITE John Hill 4-8-06 Patrick Hills (7)
Finished a length second to Descartes here last time, swooping late, and has a 6lb turnaround in the weights. He should run another good race and has decent apprentice booked. Excellent value. BP = 12/1

10) 7254 DIKTATORIAL Gerard Butler 4-8-11t Paul Hanagan
Has not enjoyed much luck this year, just failing to get up at Goodwood three runs back, getting no sort of run at Beverley next time, and then running a close fourth behind the smart Rationale over this trip at Bath. Poor form both previous runs on this surface however, and he will need to run up to his turf efforts to have any chance. BP = 25/1

11) 9401 FLORIMNUD Sir Michael Stoute 3-8-09 Martin Dwyer
Unexposed three-year-old who was banned after his third run, with the stewards ruling he had not been ridden to obtain the best possible placing. Returned to land a 1m 5f maiden here by seven lengths last time, and despite the drop back a furlong, looks sure to be a major player but is unlikely to be much value. BP = 6/1

12) 831 HASAYAZ Sir Michael Stoute 3-8-09 Seb Sanders
Showed progressive form earlier this season, winding up with a victory on this surface and over this trip at Kempton in May. Been off since though and stable companion Florimund may have stronger claims. BP = 14/1

13) 0942 TOP SEED Mick Channon 5-8-09 Robert Havlin
Been on the go since March and has run with credit in some competitive handicaps. Good second to Ardea Brave last time but has no secrets from the handicapper and vulnerable to some of the more lightly-raced contenders. BP = 28/1

14) 2851 ROBUSTIAN Fulke Johnson Houghton 3-8-03 Stephen Carson
Gained reward for some consistent efforts when finally getting his head in front at Goodwood last time. Confidence may have been boosted by that success but overall level of form leaves him with plenty to find. BP = 25/1


SUMMARY


A very interesting handicap featuring some unexposed youngsters and some reliable older customers. Descartes looked good last time and falls into the ‘could be anything’ category, but the value is with TRANSVESTITE who was second to the Godolphin runner last time.



RACENEWS CODEBREAKER - THE RACING POST TROPHY

3.15pm, Newbury, Saturday, October 21, 2006



Past Trends

17 of the last 18 winners had previously won at least once

15 of the last 18 winners had finished in the first two on their last outing

14 of the last 18 winners were priced at 9/2 or shorter


This year’s £165,000 Racing Post Trophy takes place at Newbury while its Doncaster home undergoes redevelopment, and with heavy rain having fallen on the Berkshire course , the 14 declared runners will have to see out every yard of the mile trip.


17 of the last 18 winners of the Group One contest had previously won at least once - the one exception to this rule was Dilshaan in 2000. Sir Michael Stoute’s charge stayed on to lead inside the last 100 yards to beat Tamburlaine by two and a half lengths.


Aidan O’Brien has a fantastic record in the race so Red Rock Canyon, placed in all three starts, should be respected. However, he has yet to get his head in front and is immediately discounted, as is the Peter Chapple-Hyam-trained Authorized, who was third over the course and distance on his sole start.


15 of the last 18 winners of the race had finished in the first two on their last outing. The three anomalies were Godolphin’s Medaaly in 1996, fifth on his previous start, Seattle Rhyme, who came third, and last year’s hero Palace Episode, who was fifth in the Darley Dewhurst.


The O’Brien-trained Malacara was fourth to Eagle Mountain, while another stablemate, Great Sphinx, filled the same position in a Naas Nursery. Prince Golan was eighth behind Drumfire in the Group Three Solario Stakes, while the last named, although running a fine race in the Goffs Million, was only third behind Miss Beatrix. All four are removed from the equation.

It pays to follow fancied runners as 14 of the last 18 winners were priced at 9/2 or shorter. The winners who broke this rule were Palace Episode (20/1), Dilshaan (14/1), Aristotle (10/1) and Medaaly (14/1).


This means the demise of Thousand Words, Teslin, Sunshine Kid, Petara Bay, Medicine Path and Charlie Farnsbarns, who are 8/1 or greater chances.


Separating the remaining pair, Eagle Mountain and Regime, is no easy task with both colts boasting high-class form and each having won at a mile.

The Michael Bell-trained Regime won the race on the stands’ side when runner-up to favourably-drawn Group One winner Miss Beatrix in the Shelbourne Hotel Goffs Million at the Curragh on September 19, and looks the type of progressive colt that sometimes prevails in this contest.


Eagle Mountain was a runaway winner of the Group Two Juddmonte Beresford Stakes over a mile in testing conditions at the Curragh last time, and was beaten only a head by dual Group One winner Teofilo at the same venue in August.


A glance at the respective trainers’ records makes the decision easier. Michael Bell won this race with subsequent Derby winner Motivator in 2004, but Aidan O’Brien has taken the spoils on four occasions, courtesy of Saratoga Springs in 1997, Aristotle in 1999, High Chaparral in 2001 and Brian Boru in 2002.


This week’s selection is EAGLE MOUNTAIN, who can emulate Saratoga Springs by adding the Racing Post Trophy to his Beresford Stakes victory.


For old articles (from 1st March 2000) go to the Newslink Archive


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