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Saturday, October 14, 2006


THE VALUE BETTING COLUMN every Saturday

Newmarket Saturday, October 14, 2006

3.30pm £350,000 Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group One), 1m 2f




for the best odds go to www.BritOdds.com
BP= the best price at the time of writing

Going - Good to soft


1) (6) -12124 HURRICANE RUN Andre Fabre 4-9-03 Micheal Kinane
Multiple Group One-winning champion who is bidding for compensation after a troubled passage when failing to score back-to-back Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe wins last time. He has not raced at less than 11 furlongs since his sole juvenile start but has an obvious chance. BP= 7/2

2) (7) 631152 MARAAHEL Sir Michael Stoute 5-9-03v Richard Hills
Solid Group One performer but he is slightly behind the very best. Beaten a short-head by Notnowcato over the trip in what looked an average Juddmonte International at York in August. It is hard to see him bagging a big one at the ninth attempt. BP= 10/1

3) (3) -11521 NOTNOWCATO Sir Michael Stoute 4-9-03 Ryan Moore
A progressive colt who ran his best race when runner-up to David Junior in the Coral-Eclipse in July. He did not have to better that when defeating stablemate Maraahel at York last time. He could still be on the upgrade and must be considered. BP= 6/1

4) (4) 0-1636 ROB ROY Sir Michael Stoute 4-9-03 Kerrin McEvoy
In and out Group Two-winning miler but classy on his day. Well beaten on his sole attempt at 10 furlongs in this race last year. Serious question mark over stamina and his best form is below what is required. BP= 33/1

5) (2) -41132 PRIDE Alain de Royer-Dupre 6-9-00 Christophe Lemaire
Top-class mare who was arguably given too much to do when a narrow second to Rail Link in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe last time. Runner-up in this race last year and will be thereabouts again. BP= 3/1

6) (5) -23035 OLYMPIAN ODYSSEY Barry Hills 3-8-12 Jamie Spencer
Third to George Washington in the 2,000 Guineas but has failed to reproduce that form in three subsequent starts including when disappointing in a Group Three over a mile at Newmarket last time. Shapes as though he'll stay the trip but has a lot to prove. BP= 50/1

7) (1) 1111-21 SIR PERCY Marcus Tregoning 3-8-12 Martin Dwyer
Derby winner whose only defeat came when second to George Washington in the Guineas herte in early May. Hasn't run since Epsom so he should be fresher than his rivals and 10 furlongs may be his optimum trip. BP= 11/4

8) (8) 0-2615 CONFIDENTIAL LADY Sir Mark Prescott 3-8-09 Seb Sanders
Won the French Oaks over extended 10 furlongs in June but disappointed behind Alexandrova in the Irish equivalent. She has been given plenty of time to recover and trainer won this race twice with Alborada. She could be the surprise package of the race. BP= 11/1

SUMMARY
A high-class renewal sees Sir Percy return to the fray after a summer of recuperation and he will take some beating if stable confidence is anything to go. Pride and Hurricane Run renew rivalry with the mare 2-1 up over the season but the Champion Stakes is a graveyard for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe also-rans. All three are best-suited by a strong pace, something which cannot be guaranteed given the lack of an obvious front-runner, so preference is for the filly CONFIDENTIAL LADY who is fresh, talented and goes well on the ground.



CODEBREAKER

formerly in the Racing Post Weekender

NEWMARKET, SATURDAY, OCTOBER 14, 2006

2.50pm £150,000 totesport Cesarewitch Handicap 2m 2f



Main Trends
Fresh horses (with less than six previous outings in the campaign) are favoured

Horses should have finished in the first five last time out

Concentrate on horses with 8st 12lb or less but still within the handicap


This Saturday sees the running of the second leg of Newmarket's famous "Autumn Double", the totesport Cesarewitch.


The Cesarewitch is a completely different proposition to the totesport Cambridgeshire, being run over 2m 2f as opposed to 1m 1f, and to win this prestigious handicap connections require a horse with plenty of stamina.


Codebreaker is able to identify a number of clear trends that will help pinpoint the likely winner of this season's Cesarewitch, which has attracted a field of 32.


Lightly-raced horses are favoured in the Tote Cesarewitch. Since 1992, only last year’s victor Sergeant Cecil and Spirit Of Love in 1998 had more than six outings before their Newmarket victory.

Those who have had busy campaigns and are discarded include the well-fancied Key Time, along with Baddam, Vinando, Ebtikaar, Lets Roll, Mceldowney, Whispering Death, Lightning Strike, Quizzene, Trance, Ski Jump, Theatre, High Point and Madiba.

Additionally, no horse has landed this famous staying prize on their seasonal Flat debut in the last 26 years.


For this reason we must lose ante-post favourite Detroit City (whose recent charity race appearance does not count) and Don’t Call Me Derek.

Good recent form is an important prerequisite, with only two horses since 1984 not having filled a top five finishing position on their final outing before Newmarket.

This means we can discard Barathea Blazer, Odiham, Tarandot, Contact Dancer, Mr Ed, Monolith, Inchnadamph, Dr Sharp and Boxhall.

Turning our attention to the weights, just four horses since 1990 have carried more than 8st 12lb to victory, while only one winner has won from outside of the handicap.

Following this trend, Finalmente, Cold Turkey, Mirjan and Saint Alebe appear to have too much weight, while Laggan Bay is out of the handicap.

Codebreaker now has a straight choice between Full House and Sir Monty. Both have won this season yet trade as longshots.

Looking at the stats, it is apparent that only one horse has triumphed from a single figure draw in the past 15 years.


Full House will surely find it a tough ask to win from his berth in stall one, while Sir Monty looks better positioned in stall 16.

As a result SIR MONTY is this week’s Codebreaker selection.

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